"Bear" Crowns The Dawn Of The Global Stock Market In Russia

According to Thomson Reuters data, the global monetary index compiled by J.P. Morgan shows that the depreciation rate of Russian rouble has reached 23% since 2014, while that of Argentina's peso (devaluation of 18.7%) has fallen to two digits in other major economies of the world.

At the same time, Russia's stock market is also "bear global," and has fallen by 26.6% since 2014, followed by Greece (24.7%) and Hungary (20.9%) to 20%.

In the eyes of many people, more sanctions against Russia in the future may bring new market slump, economic recession and corporate debt default.

But many fund managers see more opportunities than political risks.

Anne Richards, chief information officer of Aberdeen Asset Management Corp, said that such a low valuation level in Russia is very "eye-catching", and it prefers to be a buyer rather than a seller.

Richards acknowledged that there are risks in dealing with Russian assets, but investors should take a closer look at the business models of Russian enterprises to see if they have the ability to survive the political crisis.

In fact, the returns of Russian stocks and bonds have been much higher than most of the market since 2000, the Bulls pointed out.

According to Thomson Reuters data, from 2000 to now, Russia's stock index returns have always been higher than the overall index returns of emerging markets, with a short-term return of 262.4% and an average return of 204.5% in emerging markets.

In the bond market, the Russian bond index's return on investment for the same period in 2000 has also been leading the EMBI global portfolio returns of J.P. Morgan for a long time, with a recent return of 740.9%, far higher than the global average of 296.3%.

It also points out that the yield of Russian government bonds has reached 10%, and the yield spreads between Russian dollar denominated bonds and US Treasury bills have reached 1.7%, and bond market prices are at the lowest level in the world, while Russia currently has hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves.

Greg Peter, who manages more than $534 billion in the fixed income fund, said: "believe it or not, we are still optimistic about Russia.

They have a very small external debt scale, and you really need to look more closely at the current account gap, though it's hard to predict.

Therefore, for the current global investors, they should pay more attention to the fundamentals of the Russian economy, rather than the market sentiment caused by political problems, and investors should not miss the opportunities brought by the Russian economic recovery.

When Ukraine returned to calm slightly in March and July, Russia's ruble priced index had a 40% callback.

Lombard Odiye, the fund manager, said that it increased Russia's share in its portfolio based on debt levels, assets and liabilities and political stability.

Even skeptics do not think the Ukraine crisis will escalate.

Andrew Wilson, chief information officer of Asset Management Co Europe Goldman Sachs, said that the risk / return of rouble assets should be "more balanced than it was 3 months ago".

However, there are still conservative fund managers who believe that the biggest threat to the Russian market is that the deepening crisis will lead to more Western sanctions, which will hold them in a free fall market.

Although global investors have different views on investing in Russian capital markets, there are also keen Chinese enterprises already sniffing Russia's opportunities.

Fuxing Group CEO Liang Jun Jun recently said at the entrepreneur forum of the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University recently, because the interbank interest rate of Russian banks has reached a fairly high level, the cost of financing of Russian enterprises is very high at present, but in fact, the actual operation of many enterprises has not been affected by sanctions. Therefore, there is a short-term opportunity to invest in Russia.

With the same view, there are long-term law firms in the Russian market.

Alexander Fornov, a member of the Moscow branch of Dechert law firm, told reporters that the financing cost of Russian enterprises is high and difficult, and asset prices are seriously underestimated. For Chinese enterprises, it is a once in a lifetime acquisition and investment opportunity.