The Rising Crude Oil "Ignites" The Polyester Industry Chain: The Polyester Filament Is Popular, The Production And Marketing Will Break 100!

Last Saturday, the 179th OPEC conference was held in videoconference.

According to Xinhua, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on the 6 day, saying that OPEC and non OPEC oil producers agreed to extend the average daily production of 9 million 700 thousand barrels of crude oil to the end of July.

The statement issued by the conference said that OPEC and non OPEC oil producers agreed to extend the average daily production of 9 million 700 thousand barrels of crude oil to the end of July. At the same time, the countries that failed to complete the quota reduction in May and June will make up for the additional reduction in July to September. According to the oil reduction agreement signed by OPEC and non OPEC oil producers in April 12th, the reduction in production from May to June was 9 million 700 thousand barrels per day, and the scale of production dropped to 7 million 700 thousand barrels per day from July to the end of the year.

A historic agreement has been reached for oil production reduction, which is a major positive stimulus for crude oil prices. On the 8 day, WTI crude oil opened at $39.414, and the market opened at a low price, breaking the price of $40.

　　 Crude oil prices are rising, driving the polyester raw material market to go up.

　 In terms of PTA, The PTA futures of Zheng Shang company closed at 3772 yuan / ton, up 72 yuan compared with the previous trading day, or 1.95%.

　 　 Glycol, The futures of ethylene glycol in big business office closed at 3772 yuan / ton, up 16 yuan compared with the previous trading day, or 0.43%.

　　 Generally speaking, the rise of crude oil price has a stimulating effect on the price of polyester raw materials, while the price rise of polyester raw materials can drive the rise of polyester prices and the outbreak of production and marketing. On the 8 day, the prices of polyester filament products increased again, and manufacturers' quotations rose 50-155 yuan / ton.

　　 In terms of production and marketing, the main production and sales of polyester filament mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are on the 8 day, 120%-140%, and some good factories can produce and sell 200%.

　　 The OPEC reduction agreement is the focus of attention in recent years. Now that the reduction agreement has been extended, the price of crude oil has risen again, which has stimulated the weaving mills to hoard raw materials. But how long can this production and marketing boom last?

Cost side rebound, price support

For the polyester market today, the fluctuation of the cost side may be the biggest impact.

PTA and ethylene glycol as the most important raw material for polyester filament, its price has a significant effect on the price of polyester filament, but the price of PTA and ethylene glycol has risen at the earlier stage. In the past month, the price increases of PTA and ethylene glycol were 8.10% and 2.70% respectively.

　　 Since the beginning of this year, the demand for polyester in the lower reaches is generally low, and inventory is difficult to consume at the moment. PTA and ethylene glycol high inventory have become one of the biggest factors to drag down its price. But thanks to the recent rise in crude oil prices, the strong rebound in spot prices of PTA and ethylene glycol has given rise to the reasons for the rise in polyester prices.

Although the upstream cost side support is strong, the downstream demand side is weak, and polyester filament is currently in a hot and cold situation.

The rate of starting up is falling, weaving enterprises enter the accumulated library cycle.

Last year, we often said that quotations were "buoyant in season but lighter in off-season", but this year seems more appropriate. Since the outbreak of the outbreak, the order situation of weaving enterprises has not been ideal. Due to insufficient market capacity, most of the weaving enterprises' load has not been raised. However, due to the lack of order follow-up, production and marketing were difficult, enterprises began to accumulate inventory continuously. "Gold three silver four red May" market did not come as scheduled.

From the recent survey, the lack of orders is still a common problem in the textile industry. With the deepening of the traditional off-season atmosphere, weaving factories are still short of orders, and cash is stuck in the warehouse. According to the samples of Chinese silk net inspection, the inventory of grey cloth in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has risen to about 42-43 days, up 2 days compared with the same period last year.

　　 The inventory of grey fabric is constantly increasing, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers is also suppressed. After all, in this year's market, cash in hand is king. As of June 5th, the opening rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has dropped further to about 72%, which is also lower than the same period last year.

　　 In the case of weaving enterprises going out of the warehouse and declining rate of start-up, how much money can be purchased to purchase raw materials is unknown.

The bankruptcy of garment enterprises is continuing, and demand is hard to improve at the moment.

The epidemic has witnessed too much. Affected by the epidemic, the global economy has been shut down, the global garment industry has entered the winter: sports brand giant Adidas's first quarter net income fell 96% year-on-year, UNIQLO expects net profit in fiscal year 2020 to fall 40% compared with the same period last year, GAP sales fell by nearly half, and was sued by Simon shopping malls for arrears of rent.

Far more than that! The two day "Chao Zhu" I.T group has been unable to keep up with the hot search. It lost 700 million Hong Kong dollars in 2019. I.T closed 26 stores in Hong Kong and Macao, and asked employees to pay unpaid leave and pay cuts. The company's share price has fallen by nearly 80%.

Meanwhile, news reports showed that sales of these products would decline by 50%-60% compared with the same period last year due to the cancellation of orders for garments, footwear and travel products by many customers in Kampuchea, resulting in 250 garment production activities in Kampuchea stagnant and about 130000 workers losing their jobs.

All kinds of phenomena indicate that the terminal demand has seriously shrunk under the influence of the epidemic. The winter of the clothing industry has been lengthened, and the demand for it is better than one thirty. Especially in terms of foreign trade, the demand for improvement is even more difficult. Taking the United States as an example, as of June 8th at 9 hours in Beijing, more than 1 million 930 thousand confirmed cases were diagnosed in the United States, and became the world's largest number of confirmed cases and deaths. According to the US media 6 reported that more than 10 days ago, continuous protests across the United States exacerbated the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the number of confirmed cases in many states rebounded.

The demand for improvement is difficult, and the order of weaving enterprises is also faced with the plight of scarcity, and it is difficult to sustain sustained production and marketing and price inflation.

afterword

The agreement that the crude oil production agreement reached a higher price for crude oil is a good boost, but in the case of the global epidemic is still spreading, the demand for crude oil in the world is sharply reduced, and the price of crude oil is hard to return to the high level of 50 dollars in a short time.

For the polyester industry chain, the rise of crude oil may bring a short wave of market prices. At that time, it was still very difficult for the market to last longer in the form of terminal demand.